Thanksgiving rule, the disappearance of the Islanders, the departure of Leon Draisaitl – the athletic

Thanksgiving Day is still a popular think tank on the hockey calendar thanks to the Thanksgiving Day rule: about 80% of teams currently contending for the playoffs stay there. This means that of the 16 teams currently in contention, around 12 or 13 are still expected to be there in April.

Twenty games can say a lot about a team so that makes sense, but it’s also just math. Take the average playoff probability of the current 16 playoff teams and the average is 81 percent. Right in the goal. Teams that are supposed to be good have a high probability of starting strong, and if they don’t, there’s a good chance they will find a way to regain some ground. Teams that should be bad are the exact opposite.

No two-way hockey is guaranteed and that’s why there are always surprises at the start of the season. The question is whether they can maintain it for a whole season.

For now, based on the points percentage, here’s what the playoff picture looks like, with each team’s projected future record, current playoff probability, and preseason playoff probability for the context.

At this time, the question is still which team is likely to fall and which team is likely to rise. The simple probabilistic answer is the one based on the current odds. This means, in the West, the Ducks out and the Stars in; Penguins in,